Climate Risk

Diamond

1-5 scale

Between 90m to 25km (depending on variable)

decadal

Plot Group

2025

2030 - 2100

All

CSRD (ESRS E1), CSRD (ESRS E4), SBTN, SBTi, TNFD

This indicator assesses climate risk across 6 critical hazards: drought (prolonged dry periods), temperature extremes (changing air temperatures and cold waves), precipitation changes (shifting rainfall patterns and variability), heat stress (combined heat and humidity impacts), storm winds (winter storms), and wildfire (fire danger conditions). Each hazard receives a risk rating from 'Not Relevant' to 'Very High' for baseline conditions (year 2000) and three future time periods (2030, 2050, 2080) under low, moderate, and high emissions scenarios. The assessment helps prioritize climate adaptation investments, inform sustainability reporting (TNFD, CSRD/ESRS), and support risk management decisions.

Risk ratings use CLIMADA Technologies' climate modeling framework combining global climate projections with location-specific data. The assessment integrates: (1) Temperature and precipitation data from 24 global climate models at 25 km resolution covering atmospheric conditions; (2) Winter storm wind data from 13 climate models corrected against historical weather observations (1985-2014); (3) Wildfire risk using the Fire Weather Index, tracking days with moderate fire danger conditions; (4) Drought analysis based on consecutive dry days with minimal rainfall. Each hazard gets a baseline score (0-100) representing current conditions and a change score (-100 to +100) showing how risk shifts in the future. These combine into final risk ratings across five categories. The baseline represents year 2000 conditions; future scenarios cover 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three warming pathways: low emissions (~2°C warming by 2100), moderate emissions (~3°C), and high emissions (~5°C). Methodology follows IPCC climate modeling standards and peer-reviewed scientific approaches.

The climate data is validated through several methods: (1) Uses 24-model ensemble for temperature and precipitation and 13-model ensemble for wind, providing consensus across multiple independent climate models following IPCC standards; (2) Historical data is corrected against real weather observations—wind data checked against recorded weather patterns from 1985-2014, with 41 years of historical storm tracks; (3) Models are tested by comparing their predictions against past climate conditions (hindcasting) to verify accuracy; (4) Fire risk validated against the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System standards; (5) Sensitivity tests check how the models respond to different inputs. All methods follow internationally recognized climate science standards (IPCC frameworks) ensuring results are scientifically rigorous and comparable to global climate assessments.